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Fuel prices are falling while everyone's at home

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/20...yrwnMoDYWnJ2pltzT1_0dRPAubxpas4U-PMd0n6YpH6ag

By Brian Finn
Business Journalist

The price of a litre of fuel has fallen significantly in recent weeks. However, with personal movement restricted to within a two kilometre radius of everyone's home, the benefit of the price reduction is not being felt by many, other than those who need to carry out essential work.
Why are prices falling and how much longer could motorists benefit from this situation?
A perfect storm
Price movements on forecourts are pretty much dictated by the vagaries of international oil markets.
Government taxation makes up a large portion of the price of a litre of fuel, but that element does not change significantly.
Taxes are pretty much baked into the equation. So when there's a shock to the global oil supply, that is when we generally see prices moving upwards or downwards.
Oil prices globally started to taper off towards the latter part of last year, according to Job Langbroek, Resource Analyst with Davy Stockbrokers.
The effects of the US-China trade war shifted seamlessly into the Covid-19 crisis, which resulted in a sharp fall off in oil demand early this year, he points out.
That demand shock then spread to the rest of the world as air transport ground to a halt and the traffic of goods by sea and land gradually stopped.
On top of that, the oil producing nations of OPEC and Russia couldn't agree on continuing a strategy of capping daily oil production in order to support the oil price.
The production caps, which had been in place since late 2016, had seen the price of a barrel of Brent crude - the international oil price benchmark - stabilising at between $50 and $70, having dipped as low as $30 dollars in the preceding years.
"OPEC asked for an additional cut to counteract an obvious forthcoming Covid-19-related fall in demand," Job Langbroek explained.
"However, this was allegedly too much for Russian oil groups, resulting in the collapse of the three-year-long deal. Oil prices responded predictably and crashed."
The price went as far south as $25 a barrel, then stabilised at around $30 on the conclusion of an agreement between the sides that's promising a collective production cut of up to 10 million barrels of oil a day - amounting to about 10% of global demand prior to the pandemic.
In recent days, however, prices have fallen again with Brent sitting at around $28 a barrel at the time of writing.


How does that affect what I pay for my petrol?
There's generally a lag in the time it takes for oil prices to fall and for that to make its way onto the forecourts.
The AA carries out a monthly study of fuel prices and it found that the cost per litre dropped dramatically here in the month of March.
According to the AA's figures, the price of a litre of diesel fell by 16 cent during the month, bringing average prices to 116.9 cent per litre.
Petrol prices were 15 cent lower at 126.5 cent. That saw fuel prices falling to their lowest in four years.
The price of petrol increased slightly - by 0.4 cent - in early April, the AA reported in recent days, but diesel prices have remained static.
The striking of the agreement by OPEC and Russia may support prices in the longer term, but, as Conor Faughnan, Director of Public Affairs with the AA points out, price rises are likely to stay fairly muted while the uncertainty over the true economic effect of Covid-19 lingers.
"While a jump of $10 in crude oil prices could lead some to worry about a surge at the pumps, we need to remember that oil prices are still significantly below the levels of $60-$65 per barrel that we were seeing in 2019 and early 2020," he said.
"The long-term future of where prices are heading remains unclear and really won't start to reveal itself until we have a full understanding of the extent of the economic damage caused by COVID-19, but in the short-term we can expect prices not to deviate too much from where they currently are if all other things remain equal."
That's great. But why is fuel still so expensive if oil is so cheap?
In a word, tax! According to the AA, the bulk of what we pay at the pump goes directly to the Exchequer.
"Crude oil only accounts for about 20-25% of what we pay at the pump for a litre of fuel. The rest consists largely of taxation," Conor Faughnan explains.
If you pay ?1.25 for a litre of petrol, according to the AA's calculations, about 85 cent goes to the government in the form of taxes with the remaining 40 cent being split between the exploration company that extracted the oil from the ground, the refinery, the wholesaler and the retailer, who sells the fuel to you.
In fact, the retailer ends up with about 4 cent per litre in the current pricing environment.
And it's not a situation that's unique to Ireland. According to the AA's charts, we're around average in the league tables in Europe when it comes to pricing per litre of fuel with Eastern European countries, as well as Spain and Luxembourg, generally coming in cheaper and central European economies, including France, Italy and the Netherlands, coming in significantly more expensive.

t there is little evidence to suggest that the retailers are profiting off price falls or price gains.
A major study of fuel prices here carried out by the National Consumer Agency over 10 years ago found that fuel retailers do not artificially inflate prices.
So how long can we expect the current low prices to last?
There does not appear to be much hope that the agreement to cap output by OPEC and its allies will drive the price of oil any higher, if at all. In fact, it's fallen back again in recent days.

"This may be the largest ever cut, but we're living through an unprecedented event and demand has fallen off a cliff," Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst with Oanda said.
"It's no surprise to see oil prices paring back the early April gains to sit not far from their lows."
Job Langbroek of Davy believes it will be several months, at the earliest, before prices can start to get back on an even keel.
"Given the projected disease trajectory in main markets, it may well be mid-summer before oil demand begins to improve," he said.
However, with the IMF now forecasting a severe recession of the magnitude of the 1930s Great Depression, the pickup in the demand for crude may be slower than many would have hoped, Oanda points out in a trading note.
So lower fuel prices might be with us for the medium term.
 
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Only 3 22Bs !! If only we could rig the raffle Father Ted style with a Number 11 ticket


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[h=1]Five things you never knew about the Subaru WRX[/h]
https://www.topgear.com/car-news/re...7_Jh16pGOwYzL_8qwrLPleoEAd_ho5haOnJj-BougNg#1

[h=2]Subaru was not afraid of elaborately named special editions[/h]Let?s skip past all the ones we can name off the top of our heads and get to the wordy motherlode: the Impreza WRX STI Spec C RA-R. Yep, that?s the name of just one car, and if you wanted to write the whole thing out, it?d be (deepest of breaths now) the following:
World Rally eXperimental Subaru Tecnica International Specification Competition Record Attempt ? Radical.
Yeesh.
The RA was a stripped-out version for the Japanese market, with air conditioning, power windows and anti-lock brakes all left on the shelf at the factory. The Spec C, on the other hand, denoted an even more stripped-out WRX STI, with thinner glass, lightweight panels and a distinct absence of soundproofing or stereo. To drill down any deeper would be like putting a hat on a hat ? or, in this case, an anorak on an anorak.

[h=2]For a time, they were Australia?s getaway car of choice[/h]Small, nimble, a complete doddle to drive at speed and as easy to pinch as a baby?s cheek, the WRX was really a no-brainer when it came to criminals picking a getaway car. And yes, it?s about what you?re thinking ? Baby Driver, just with the accents from Home and Away and the knowledge that no one will be anywhere near as attractive as Jon Hamm.
Also, try to imagine the opposite end of the spectrum to Edgar Wright?s fast-paced wit. In general, the crime du jour was the ram raid: crash a car into the front of a bank or bookies, then grab the cash machine / takings and sod off again. Hardly the Thomas Crown Affair.
As for poor plod trying to catch them in big, rear-drive V8 Commodores and Falcons? Yeah, right. ?NSW police estimate, conservatively, that there have been more than 100 pursuits involving Imprezas during the past two years,? read an Australian report, ?and not one has been caught during a chase.?
After the usual Australian knee-jerk bureaucratic idiocy did the rounds ? ban WRXs outright, limit their power, put speed restrictors on all road cars on spec ? they finally cottoned on to the idea of making WRXs harder to nick. Oh, and bought a few WRXs for the long-suffering arm of the law.

[h=2]The all-wheel-drive system is different to other cars[/h]Hoo boy, we?ve backed ourselves into a bit of a corner here. There?s no way to put this gently ? we?re going to have to talk about technical things for a bit.
Luckily, we found someone from Subaru who?d already explained it more succinctly that we could ever hope to.
?In a lot of all-wheel-drive systems, the engine drives a front-mounted gearbox, which drives the front axle through the front differential first. The rotation of the front axle in turn runs a central shaft, which turns the rear axle.
?This means that the majority of the torque goes to the front axle, with the rear driveshaft receiving a maximum of 40 per cent. On the other hand, Subaru?s system powers the centre differential first, which means that the system can send up to 70 per cent of the torque to the rear axle.?
There you go. Differenter. And possibly betterer.

[h=2]Its drivers tended to become legends[/h]The thing about legends is that they?re usually not still with us ? hence the term ?living legend?, to distinguish that the hero in question is still with us. (A living legend like, say, Carlos Sainz, who partnered McRae in the Nineties and was an absolute hero behind the wheel of the Scooby.)
However? Richard Burns, Colin McRae, Possum Bourne ? all WRX race drivers, all successful in their respective championships, all no longer with us. We?re not saying by any stretch of the imagination that WRXs had anything to do with their demise, just that it?s odd that one model of car would attract such top-tier drivers (and generally acknowledged excellent human beings), who would all meet an early end. And speaking of early ends?

[h=2]That iconic blue and yellow colour scheme? Yeah, it was cigarette sponsorship[/h]This one probably hurts a bit. But, if you?re not old enough to remember how prevalent tobacco advertising used to be in motorsport, just go ahead and assume that 80 per cent of all the classic liveries you know and love had something to do with death sticks.
Tobacco advertising wasn?t just in every pore and alveoli of motorsport, of course, but most sports, which, when you consider what cigarettes do to your lungs and general fitness, is kind of like a manufacturer of whale harpoons sponsoring Sea Shepherd. But, as ever, we digress.
The blue and yellow colour scheme and 555 race number? All to do with a particular brand of coffin nails. Still looks like a wonderful confluence of garishness and excellence in our minds.
 
Be interesting to see this build.
 

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Was behind this yesterday can't be too many SJ9 XT's in Ireland?
 

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2 doors are for girls

Here it is from one of the designers of the GC series cars - 2 doors are for girls......I knew it.
 

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Good McRae article, . . Even if they call him a Ford legend!


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